Kategorie: Science Communication

For War on the Rocks, I explored the potential defense industrial consequences of a second Trump presidency for Europe. Never have I written something I hope to be proven wrong.

Despite repeated calls across Europe to treat this as a wake-up call for achieving greater autonomy in security and defense affairs — and despite Trump’s demands for Europe to step up its defense spending — my analysis suggests that Europe may become even more dependent on the United States.

Trump’s enthusiastic promotion of U.S. arms exports could further marginalize European firms, which already struggle with export dependence and a fragmented market compared to their self-sustaining U.S. counterparts. The future president’s likely insistence on linking American security guarantees to the purchase of U.S.-made weapon systems would undercut any autonomy gains Europeans might achieve through increased defense spending.

The likely result is a more fragmented European defense industrial base and an increasing reliance on bilateral ties with the U.S. rather than strengthening collective European defense capabilities. This would perpetuate Europe’s inescapable tension between equipping their forces efficiently and securing their long-term industrial capacities.

The stakes for a more capable Europe have never been higher. Read the full article here.

What role for the EU in European defense?

I had the privilege of collaborating with Kaija Schilde to develop our argument on the EU’s potential role in fostering a more capable European defense for the Ifo Institute’s Center for Economic Studies (CESifo). While the EU has not yet emerged as a direct buyer of defense goods, it already serves as a provider of public goods through its single market, which encompasses security-related products.

By leveraging its regulatory authority, the EU can reduce uncertainty in the defense market, incentivize R&D investments, and ensure the long-term competitiveness of European defense companies. Expanding its regulatory role in defense could enable the EU to indirectly establish a robust defense market as a public good for Europe’s collective security.

Find the article here.

What do we know about the international arms trade?

The Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI) deserves immense credit for providing international arms transfer data, an invaluable resource for researchers, civil society, and policymakers.

However, commentators often misunderstand the underlying methodology. My article clarifies what kinds of arms transfers SIPRI measures and how it measures those transfers of major conventional weapons. I conclude by highlighting a few trends relevant to Europe, focusing on the largest importers and exporters and their respective suppliers and recipients.

The article was published in Europäische Sicherheit & Technik 06/2024, pp. 59-62.

Berlin, 2024-04-05

How can the EU’s Defence Industrial Strategy (EDIS) contribute to European defence?

For Europäische Sicherheit & Technik, I took a closer look at the EU’s Defence Industrial Strategy (EDIS) published last month. My analysis suggests that the Commission should refrain from political symbolism in the form of a Defence Commissioner as this would probably be another EU defence institution in an overcrowded but underutilized field. Instead, leveraging its regulatory prowess the EU should focus on fostering a conducive regulatory environment for the European Defence Technological and Industrial Base (EDTIB) to flourish.

You can find the article „Europäische Rüstungsindustriestrategie“ in Europäische Sicherheit & Technik, 04/2024, p. 87-88.