For War on the Rocks, I explored the potential defense industrial consequences of a second Trump presidency for Europe. Never have I written something I hope to be proven wrong.
Despite repeated calls across Europe to treat this as a wake-up call for achieving greater autonomy in security and defense affairs — and despite Trump’s demands for Europe to step up its defense spending — my analysis suggests that Europe may become even more dependent on the United States.
Trump’s enthusiastic promotion of U.S. arms exports could further marginalize European firms, which already struggle with export dependence and a fragmented market compared to their self-sustaining U.S. counterparts. The future president’s likely insistence on linking American security guarantees to the purchase of U.S.-made weapon systems would undercut any autonomy gains Europeans might achieve through increased defense spending.
The likely result is a more fragmented European defense industrial base and an increasing reliance on bilateral ties with the U.S. rather than strengthening collective European defense capabilities. This would perpetuate Europe’s inescapable tension between equipping their forces efficiently and securing their long-term industrial capacities.
The stakes for a more capable Europe have never been higher. Read the full article here.
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